Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 49.6% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Sourdif leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 55.2%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 84.5%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 60.0%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Fantilli
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Fantilli
Sourdif
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Sourdif
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
6
Fantilli
Sourdif
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
3
Fantilli
Sourdif
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (887)
44.3% (585)
+5.1%
Power Play
51.4% (105)
50.0% (24)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
61.5% (13)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Fantilli is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Fantilli shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Sourdif
Home
50.7% (503)
43.6% (321)
Away
48.5% (501)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Fantilli
Sourdif
P1
47.0%
41.9%
P2
52.5%
44.3%
P3
49.7%
47.9%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.6%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:28 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:50 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:00 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 00:49 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |