Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs McTavish 49.1% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 55.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 91.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 73.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Lowry
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Lowry
McTavish
Last 7: Lowry 5-2 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
McTavish
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
47.6% (618)
+8.1%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
58.3% (103)
+27.4%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
33.3% (6)
+5.7%
On power play, Lowry has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. McTavish is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Lowry
McTavish
Home
54.3% (429)
52.2% (391)
Away
53.5% (385)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Lowry
McTavish
P1
53.1%
50.2%
P2
55.2%
47.7%
P3
54.4%
49.2%
OT
40.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 05:04 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 16:50 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 19:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:20 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |