Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Wennberg wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.3% vs Paul 53.6% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wennberg 65.6%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 63.2%
Neutral zone
Wennberg 63.4%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Wennberg
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Wennberg
Paul
Last 9: Wennberg 3-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Wennberg
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Wennberg
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (818)
53.7% (354)
-8.0%
Power Play
53.6% (248)
59.0% (61)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (176)
52.9% (34)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Wennberg is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (878).
Wennberg shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Paul
Home
47.3% (607)
55.1% (216)
Away
44.7% (635)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Wennberg
Paul
P1
44.8%
54.9%
P2
46.3%
54.5%
P3
47.2%
54.3%
OT
36.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
45.4%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
48.0%▬
49.0%
46.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 09:01 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 12:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |