Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Wennberg wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.3% vs Steel 50.6% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wennberg 62.2%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 62.4%
Neutral zone
Wennberg 60.9%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Wennberg
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Wennberg
Steel
Last 6: Wennberg 2-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wennberg
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Wennberg
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Wennberg
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (818)
52.5% (200)
-6.8%
Power Play
53.6% (248)
71.4% (7)
-17.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (176)
40.0% (45)
-3.6%
On power play, Steel has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Wennberg is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (878).
Wennberg shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Steel
Home
47.3% (607)
49.5% (109)
Away
44.7% (635)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Wennberg
Steel
P1
44.8%
49.5%
P2
46.3%
47.5%
P3
47.2%
56.6%
OT
36.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
45.4%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
48.0%▬
49.0%
46.0%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | OT | 01:24 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OT | 01:03 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OT | 00:57 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |