Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Matthews 58.8% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 73.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 74.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Lowry
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Lowry
Matthews
Last 9: Lowry 2-7 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
0
4
Lowry
Matthews
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Matthews
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
3
Lowry
Matthews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
59.8% (848)
-4.1%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
64.9% (37)
+20.8%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
56.3% (87)
-17.3%
On power play, Lowry has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Lowry
Matthews
Home
54.3% (429)
60.0% (520)
Away
53.5% (385)
59.3% (452)
By Period
Lowry
Matthews
P1
53.1%
60.2%
P2
55.2%
58.2%
P3
54.4%
60.4%
OT
40.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 02:23 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |