Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cave on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.9% vs Cave 50.1% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cave 62.2%
Defensive zone
Cave 74.6%
Neutral zone
Cave 67.9%
Result
Colby Cave favored at 70.8%
29.2%
70.8%
Matthews
Cave
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Matthews
Cave
Last 5: Matthews 1-4 Cave
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Cave
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cave
0
3
Matthews
Cave
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cave
0
1
Matthews
Cave
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Cave
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (892)
50.8% (356)
+1.6%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
36.4% (11)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
46.9% (32)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Cave has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cave shoots left. Matthews is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (606).
Matthews shoots left. Cave is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Matthews
Cave
Home
54.3% (420)
46.7% (184)
Away
50.3% (491)
53.0% (215)
By Period
Matthews
Cave
P1
54.2%
45.3%
P2
54.3%
51.9%
P3
47.8%
53.6%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.8%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
52.1%
Cave
42.0%▼
50.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2019 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Colby Cave |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 14:32 | Defensive | Colby Cave |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Colby Cave |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Colby Cave |