Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +19.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Barzal 41.9% (+19.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 78.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 66.8%
Neutral zone
Barzal 70.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Matthews
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Matthews
Barzal
Last 8: Matthews 3-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Matthews
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Barzal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Matthews
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
40.9% (469)
+18.9%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
34.2% (38)
+30.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
28.6% (7)
+27.7%
On power play, Matthews has a +30.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Matthews
Barzal
Home
60.0% (520)
39.2% (250)
Away
59.3% (452)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Matthews
Barzal
P1
60.2%
46.3%
P2
58.2%
36.7%
P3
60.4%
38.5%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:14 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:22 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:50 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |