Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Hartman 45.6% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 94.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 94.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.2%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 94.3%
94.3%
5.7%
Matthews
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Matthews
Hartman
Last 8: Matthews 7-1 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Hartman
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
45.1% (874)
+14.7%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
47.4% (95)
+17.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
37.5% (16)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hartman
Home
60.0% (520)
45.0% (515)
Away
59.3% (452)
45.3% (470)
By Period
Matthews
Hartman
P1
60.2%
47.3%
P2
58.2%
40.1%
P3
60.4%
48.3%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 06:27 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 06:53 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:29 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |