Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.1% vs McDavid 48.1% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 87.4%
Defensive zone
Horvat 91.7%
Neutral zone
Horvat 89.4%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 89.5%
89.5%
10.5%
Horvat
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Horvat
McDavid
Last 6: Horvat 5-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
1
Horvat
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (731)
47.7% (686)
+8.0%
Power Play
63.4% (243)
49.3% (75)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (107)
48.9% (45)
-0.3%
On power play, Horvat has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Horvat is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (633).
Horvat shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Horvat
McDavid
Home
59.4% (537)
50.0% (412)
Away
54.0% (544)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Horvat
McDavid
P1
59.9%
48.0%
P2
54.5%
48.5%
P3
56.1%
47.1%
OT
55.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.7%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |