Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.1% vs 47.7%). Look for Shaw on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Shaw wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 47.7% vs Nelson 47.8% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 54.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.8%
Neutral zone
Shaw 53.4%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Shaw
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Shaw
Nelson
Last 6: Shaw 4-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
3
1
Shaw
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Shaw
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (299)
47.4% (1,020)
-1.6%
Power Play
54.5% (66)
51.5% (163)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
42.9% (63)
-0.8%
On power play, Shaw has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Shaw is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (293).
Shaw shoots right. Nelson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (425).
Home / Away
Shaw
Nelson
Home
50.0% (152)
51.0% (641)
Away
45.3% (232)
44.1% (605)
By Period
Shaw
Nelson
P1
44.8%
48.2%
P2
46.0%
48.1%
P3
50.4%
46.9%
Final 5 min
46.8%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 06:48 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 12:11 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 06:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |