Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Point wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 47.0% vs Nelson 50.7% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 81.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.9%
Neutral zone
Point 65.9%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Point
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Point
Nelson
Last 9: Point 3-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
3
0
Point
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
4
Point
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Point
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (453)
50.8% (917)
-4.9%
Power Play
50.0% (108)
59.1% (176)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
43.1% (204)
-23.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Point is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Point shoots right. Nelson is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
Point
Nelson
Home
46.6% (264)
52.6% (639)
Away
46.4% (302)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Point
Nelson
P1
46.3%
48.3%
P2
45.5%
54.0%
P3
48.6%
50.4%
OT
0.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
45.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
48.0%▬
48.0%
46.5%
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Brayden Point |