Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Grant 52.7% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Nelson
Grant
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Grant
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Grant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Grant
1
3
Nelson
Grant
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grant
0
1
Nelson
Grant
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Grant
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
53.4% (511)
-5.4%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
55.6% (18)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
50.0% (68)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Grant has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Grant shoots left. Nelson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Nelson shoots left. Grant is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Nelson
Grant
Home
51.1% (399)
56.1% (344)
Away
45.6% (406)
49.0% (253)
By Period
Nelson
Grant
P1
51.8%
49.4%
P2
47.5%
56.1%
P3
46.5%
54.0%
OT
20.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.3%
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 1 | 17:33 | Neutral | Derek Grant |