Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 50.4%). Look for James on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs James 50.3% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
James 52.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Nelson
James
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
James
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 James
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
James
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: James
0
4
Nelson
James
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
James
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
James
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.6% (270)
+1.3%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
80.0% (5)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
100.0% (1)
-56.6%
On penalty kill, James has a +56.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
James shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. James is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (188).
Home / Away
Nelson
James
Home
52.9% (654)
47.4% (156)
Away
48.9% (658)
54.2% (120)
By Period
Nelson
James
P1
48.4%
47.4%
P2
54.3%
53.3%
P3
50.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
James
60.0%▲
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 16:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Dominic James |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Dominic James |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 02:15 | Defensive | Dominic James |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Dominic James |