Brock Nelson vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 96.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 71.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 91.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 92.2%
92.2%
7.8%
Nelson
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Nelson
Gaudreau
Last 6: Nelson 5-1 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Gaudreau
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
0
1
Nelson
Gaudreau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
44.9% (414)
+5.9%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
31.8% (22)
+27.3%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
38.0% (129)
+5.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Nelson is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (453).
Nelson shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gaudreau
Home
52.6% (639)
42.6% (277)
Away
48.9% (658)
43.1% (288)
By Period
Nelson
Gaudreau
P1
48.3%
44.1%
P2
54.0%
44.7%
P3
50.4%
39.5%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |