Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Duchene 51.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 65.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Nelson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Duchene
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
51.1% (366)
-0.3%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
61.5% (65)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
16.7% (6)
+26.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Nelson shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Nelson
Duchene
Home
52.6% (639)
51.7% (201)
Away
48.9% (658)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Nelson
Duchene
P1
48.3%
49.0%
P2
54.0%
57.1%
P3
50.4%
49.2%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 14:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 02:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |