Chandler Stephenson vs Noah Cates
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Cates 45.5% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 62.9%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 52.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Stephenson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Stephenson
Cates
Last 8: Stephenson 3-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Stephenson
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
2
1
Stephenson
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Stephenson
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
45.5% (756)
+6.5%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
42.1% (114)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
44.7% (47)
-5.2%
On power play, Stephenson has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Stephenson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Stephenson shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Cates
Home
53.1% (672)
46.2% (468)
Away
51.1% (628)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Stephenson
Cates
P1
54.2%
46.0%
P2
50.7%
47.5%
P3
52.0%
42.1%
OT
50.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
52.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:33 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Noah Cates |