Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Perreault on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Perreault 50.6% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Perreault 57.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 55.5%
Neutral zone
Perreault 54.6%
Result
Mathieu Perreault favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Kelly
Perreault
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kelly
Perreault
Last 8: Kelly 3-5 Perreault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Perreault
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Perreault
0
3
Kelly
Perreault
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Perreault
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Perreault
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
51.8% (413)
-0.5%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
36.4% (33)
+32.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
0.0% (1)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Perreault shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Perreault is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
Kelly
Perreault
Home
52.3% (388)
50.0% (212)
Away
51.3% (421)
51.5% (239)
By Period
Kelly
Perreault
P1
50.0%
49.0%
P2
51.7%
47.8%
P3
53.0%
56.2%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Perreault
48.0%▼
51.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2012 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 1 | 03:00 | Neutral | Mathieu Perreault |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Feb 5, 2012 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 07:18 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 13:39 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 05:38 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |