Scouting Report
Chris Thorburn holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Thorburn wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thorburn 53.0% vs Connolly 47.3% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 51.1%
Defensive zone
Connolly 52.6%
Neutral zone
Connolly 53.1%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Thorburn
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Thorburn
Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thorburn
Connolly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Thorburn
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thorburn
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (504)
47.4% (1,307)
+8.4%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
50.2% (251)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (91)
41.9% (186)
+1.0%
On even strength, Thorburn has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Thorburn is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (177).
Thorburn shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Thorburn
Connolly
Home
55.7% (305)
48.5% (870)
Away
51.3% (308)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Thorburn
Connolly
P1
54.9%
47.4%
P2
55.1%
47.7%
P3
51.1%
47.0%
OT
20.0%
37.8%
Final 5 min
47.8%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thorburn
52.0%▼
57.0%
53.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 07:13 | Neutral | Chris Thorburn |
| Oct 29, 2010 | 2 | 03:45 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |