Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Frost 56.3% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 94.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 69.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 88.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 82.2%
17.8%
82.2%
Bedard
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Bedard
Frost
Last 7: Bedard 5-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
55.8% (745)
-11.6%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
60.5% (172)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
88.9% (9)
-35.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Bedard shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Bedard
Frost
Home
50.7% (223)
57.3% (497)
Away
42.6% (331)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Bedard
Frost
P1
40.2%
60.1%
P2
49.2%
56.0%
P3
47.2%
54.7%
OT
57.1%
63.6%
Final 5 min
45.2%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |