Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Foligno 49.9% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 74.5%
Defensive zone
Bedard 58.6%
Neutral zone
Bedard 64.3%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Bedard
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Bedard
Foligno
Last 6: Bedard 2-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
49.5% (291)
-5.3%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
55.8% (43)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
47.2% (53)
+6.6%
On power play, Bedard has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Bedard shoots right. Foligno is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Bedard
Foligno
Home
50.7% (223)
48.9% (178)
Away
42.6% (331)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Bedard
Foligno
P1
40.2%
43.0%
P2
49.2%
55.9%
P3
47.2%
50.0%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:55 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 01:29 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |