Casey Mittelstadt vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.5% vs McDavid 48.1% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 50.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Last 5: Mittelstadt 2-3 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Mittelstadt
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (141)
47.7% (686)
+1.9%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
49.3% (75)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
48.9% (45)
+51.1%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +51.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Mittelstadt is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Mittelstadt shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
McDavid
Home
58.7% (92)
50.0% (412)
Away
42.0% (81)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Mittelstadt
McDavid
P1
47.7%
48.0%
P2
48.2%
48.5%
P3
56.7%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
50.9%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:16 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |