Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Foligno 49.9% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.8%
Defensive zone
Foligno 60.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
McDavid
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
McDavid
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
49.5% (291)
-1.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
55.8% (43)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
47.2% (53)
+1.7%
On power play, Foligno has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
McDavid
Foligno
Home
50.0% (412)
48.9% (178)
Away
45.7% (394)
50.7% (209)
By Period
McDavid
Foligno
P1
48.0%
43.0%
P2
48.5%
55.9%
P3
47.1%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |