Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 48.3%). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Moore shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Moore 48.9% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Moore 56.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.1%
Neutral zone
Moore 53.3%
Result
Oliver Moore favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
McDavid
Moore
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDavid
Moore
Last 5: McDavid 2-3 Moore
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Moore
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Moore
0
1
McDavid
Moore
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Moore
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Moore
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
50.3% (187)
-2.6%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
33.3% (15)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
0.0% (3)
+48.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +48.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Moore shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Moore is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
McDavid
Moore
Home
50.0% (412)
52.3% (132)
Away
45.7% (394)
41.1% (73)
By Period
McDavid
Moore
P1
48.0%
44.3%
P2
48.5%
54.2%
P3
47.1%
46.5%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Moore
38.0%▼
48.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:16 | Neutral | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |