Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowell on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Dowell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.7% vs Dowell 48.5% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowell 67.3%
Defensive zone
Dowell 68.2%
Neutral zone
Dowell 70.0%
Result
Jake Dowell favored at 68.6%
31.4%
68.6%
MacKenzie
Dowell
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
MacKenzie
Dowell
Last 9: MacKenzie 3-6 Dowell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowell
0
2
MacKenzie
Dowell
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Dowell
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowell
0
3
MacKenzie
Dowell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Dowell
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (370)
46.1% (180)
+9.0%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
100.0% (1)
-44.4%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
62.5% (16)
-13.5%
On power play, Dowell has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowell shoots left. MacKenzie is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (293).
MacKenzie shoots left. Dowell is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (146).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Dowell
Home
56.1% (228)
49.5% (107)
Away
52.7% (201)
45.6% (90)
By Period
MacKenzie
Dowell
P1
53.4%
52.3%
P2
55.1%
44.3%
P3
53.9%
46.8%
Final 5 min
54.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.5%
Dowell
38.0%▼
47.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2011 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 1 | 09:18 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 1 | 05:28 | Defensive | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 15:10 | Neutral | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 05:51 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jake Dowell |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |