Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.3% vs Monahan 46.3% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 84.9%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 52.2%
Neutral zone
Monahan 61.9%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
MacKenzie
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
MacKenzie
Monahan
Last 6: MacKenzie 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
4
MacKenzie
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (377)
45.9% (908)
+9.0%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
49.1% (108)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (109)
30.0% (20)
+8.5%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. MacKenzie is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (282).
MacKenzie shoots left. Monahan is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Monahan
Home
51.9% (237)
48.7% (528)
Away
51.2% (260)
43.1% (508)
By Period
MacKenzie
Monahan
P1
49.7%
50.1%
P2
50.6%
44.7%
P3
53.5%
42.7%
OT
100.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
49.1%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
51.5%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2013 | 3 | 03:28 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2013 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2013 | 1 | 16:52 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 4, 2013 | 3 | 12:10 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 4, 2013 | 1 | 06:06 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 4, 2013 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |