Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Roy wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 45.3% vs Stastny 57.3% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 75.8%
Defensive zone
Roy 83.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 86.0%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Roy
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Roy
Stastny
Last 10: Roy 1-9 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
3
Roy
Stastny
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Stastny
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
5
Roy
Stastny
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (784)
57.6% (959)
-12.8%
Power Play
45.0% (111)
60.8% (125)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (14)
58.1% (74)
-15.2%
On power play, Stastny has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Roy is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Roy shoots left. Stastny is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (761).
Home / Away
Roy
Stastny
Home
45.8% (421)
55.9% (590)
Away
43.9% (488)
60.0% (568)
By Period
Roy
Stastny
P1
44.9%
59.6%
P2
43.6%
59.0%
P3
46.4%
55.3%
OT
35.3%
58.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
65.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
44.8%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 07:27 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 10:44 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 17:41 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 04:10 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 00:57 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Derek Roy |