Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.5% vs Ryan 52.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kerfoot 69.0%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 56.3%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 57.8%
Result
Alexander Kerfoot favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Kerfoot
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kerfoot
Ryan
Last 8: Kerfoot 3-5 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
2
Kerfoot
Ryan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
2
1
Kerfoot
Ryan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
2
Kerfoot
Ryan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (372)
54.1% (603)
-6.8%
Power Play
46.4% (28)
40.9% (44)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
45.9% (85)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Kerfoot is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (127).
Kerfoot shoots left. Ryan is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Ryan
Home
53.2% (216)
52.5% (341)
Away
39.8% (191)
52.2% (391)
By Period
Kerfoot
Ryan
P1
43.2%
56.0%
P2
46.6%
48.1%
P3
51.0%
52.8%
OT
20.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.7%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
46.0%▼
54.5%
46.9%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 07:34 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 05:17 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 02:14 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |