Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 56.0%). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Sobotka 55.8% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 50.7%
Defensive zone
Ryan 50.2%
Neutral zone
Ryan 53.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Ryan
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Ryan
Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Sobotka
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Sobotka
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
56.9% (2,613)
-0.3%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
57.0% (223)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
50.6% (447)
-2.8%
On power play, Sobotka has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Sobotka is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,141).
Home / Away
Ryan
Sobotka
Home
56.2% (2,559)
58.7% (1,601)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
53.5% (1,685)
By Period
Ryan
Sobotka
P1
55.1%
56.2%
P2
54.7%
56.3%
P3
56.0%
55.3%
OT
58.3%
61.4%
Final 5 min
52.5%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2018 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2 | 02:28 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 1 | 15:27 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 2 | 09:00 | Neutral | Vladimir Sobotka |