Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Barbashev 46.5% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 61.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 59.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 68.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Stepan
Barbashev
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stepan
Barbashev
Last 7: Stepan 6-1 Barbashev
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Barbashev
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
0
1
Stepan
Barbashev
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
0
Stepan
Barbashev
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Barbashev
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
44.7% (300)
+2.6%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
71.4% (7)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
47.6% (21)
-2.4%
On power play, Barbashev has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barbashev shoots left. Stepan is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Stepan shoots right. Barbashev is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Stepan
Barbashev
Home
50.4% (560)
39.6% (134)
Away
45.1% (637)
49.5% (194)
By Period
Stepan
Barbashev
P1
47.4%
38.3%
P2
47.0%
50.0%
P3
48.1%
49.1%
Final 5 min
48.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Barbashev
26.0%▼
36.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |