Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 38.4% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Bailey 45.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 80.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 58.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 65.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Stepan
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Stepan
Bailey
Last 8: Stepan 2-6 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
3
Stepan
Bailey
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
2
Stepan
Bailey
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
44.2% (441)
-5.6%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
48.1% (81)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
41.7% (84)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Stepan is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Stepan shoots right. Bailey is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (229).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bailey
Home
39.0% (364)
43.1% (295)
Away
38.0% (355)
45.6% (320)
By Period
Stepan
Bailey
P1
39.4%
46.5%
P2
40.6%
45.7%
P3
36.4%
41.3%
OT
12.5%
38.5%
Final 5 min
40.4%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 18:14 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 2 | 08:08 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 27, 2010 | 3 | 09:49 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 11, 2010 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 11, 2010 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 11, 2010 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |