Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Laferriere wins 39.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.2% vs Larkin 52.2% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Laferriere 63.0%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 60.7%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 62.5%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Laferriere
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Laferriere
Larkin
Last 8: Laferriere 3-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Laferriere
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Laferriere
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Laferriere
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (325)
51.1% (915)
-9.3%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
59.4% (261)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (72)
48.2% (168)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Laferriere is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Laferriere shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Larkin
Home
40.2% (204)
51.7% (686)
Away
42.9% (210)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Laferriere
Larkin
P1
32.5%
52.5%
P2
39.7%
52.7%
P3
48.9%
51.4%
OT
100.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
40.4%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
38.0%▼
40.0%
41.5%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:10 | Defensive | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 03:45 | Offensive | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 02:47 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |