Casey Mittelstadt vs Dylan Larkin
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.5% vs Larkin 52.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 67.8%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 50.7%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 52.1%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Last 8: Mittelstadt 3-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Mittelstadt
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
1
Mittelstadt
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Mittelstadt
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (141)
51.1% (915)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
59.4% (261)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
48.2% (168)
+51.8%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +51.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Mittelstadt is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Larkin
Home
58.7% (92)
51.7% (686)
Away
42.0% (81)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Larkin
P1
47.7%
52.5%
P2
48.2%
52.7%
P3
56.7%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
61.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
50.9%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | OT | 01:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |