Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Paquette wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 47.4% vs Larkin 49.9% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paquette 60.6%
Defensive zone
Paquette 63.5%
Neutral zone
Paquette 64.4%
Result
Cedric Paquette favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Paquette
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Paquette
Larkin
Last 8: Paquette 2-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Paquette
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Paquette
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Paquette
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (474)
48.5% (1,057)
-1.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
61.4% (140)
-61.4%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (23)
48.7% (117)
+7.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +61.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Paquette is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (307).
Paquette shoots left. Larkin is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Paquette
Larkin
Home
50.2% (233)
51.4% (652)
Away
44.0% (266)
48.5% (662)
By Period
Paquette
Larkin
P1
42.0%
49.1%
P2
47.6%
52.0%
P3
51.6%
48.0%
Final 5 min
43.2%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
46.9%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 18:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Oct 16, 2017 | 3 | 00:01 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 16, 2017 | 1 | 08:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 16, 2017 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 16, 2017 | 1 | 05:07 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |