Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Rodrigues 47.1% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 79.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 75.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 75.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
Larkin
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larkin
Rodrigues
Last 8: Larkin 6-2 Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Rodrigues
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Rodrigues
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Rodrigues
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
47.8% (651)
+3.3%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
47.2% (72)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
36.8% (68)
+11.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Larkin
Rodrigues
Home
51.7% (686)
47.9% (445)
Away
53.0% (658)
45.4% (346)
By Period
Larkin
Rodrigues
P1
52.5%
48.3%
P2
52.7%
47.0%
P3
51.4%
44.8%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |