Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 84.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 72.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Larkin
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Larkin
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Larkin
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
57.1% (368)
-6.0%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
55.2% (96)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
50.0% (10)
-1.8%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
51.7% (686)
53.9% (230)
Away
53.0% (658)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
52.5%
56.7%
P2
52.7%
54.1%
P3
51.4%
59.2%
OT
61.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.7%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 00:15 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |