Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bertuzzi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Bertuzzi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Bertuzzi 47.1% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bertuzzi 81.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.8%
Neutral zone
Bertuzzi 58.3%
Result
Tyler Bertuzzi favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Bertuzzi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bertuzzi
0
3
Larkin
Bertuzzi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Bertuzzi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bertuzzi
0
1
Larkin
Bertuzzi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
45.2% (84)
+5.9%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
40.9% (22)
+18.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bertuzzi shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Bertuzzi is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (73).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Home
51.7% (686)
58.0% (50)
Away
53.0% (658)
32.1% (56)
By Period
Larkin
Bertuzzi
P1
52.5%
40.6%
P2
52.7%
36.6%
P3
51.4%
56.3%
OT
61.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Bertuzzi
34.0%▼
39.5%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:04 | Offensive | Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Tyler Bertuzzi |