Elias Pettersson vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.0%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 61.1%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 55.4%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
13
(25 meetings)
12
13
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Pettersson 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
6
Pettersson
MacKinnon
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
5
1
Pettersson
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
6
Pettersson
MacKinnon
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (834)
49.7% (1,038)
-3.8%
Power Play
55.1% (256)
63.7% (157)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (112)
34.4% (32)
+1.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pettersson is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (421).
Pettersson shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Pettersson
MacKinnon
Home
49.1% (607)
53.1% (618)
Away
44.7% (595)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Pettersson
MacKinnon
P1
45.5%
49.3%
P2
48.0%
53.0%
P3
47.1%
50.7%
OT
47.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
44.0%▼
52.5%
46.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:24 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 16:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |