Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Rodrigues 46.0% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 18-8 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 95.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 91.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 89.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 93.0%
93.0%
7.0%
Larkin
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
8
(26 meetings)
18
8
Larkin
Rodrigues
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
5
Larkin
Rodrigues
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Rodrigues
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
1
Larkin
Rodrigues
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
46.2% (2,897)
+5.4%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
44.8% (299)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
42.7% (220)
+7.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,436).
Home / Away
Larkin
Rodrigues
Home
53.9% (6,277)
47.1% (1,836)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
44.4% (1,580)
By Period
Larkin
Rodrigues
P1
52.7%
46.9%
P2
53.1%
46.1%
P3
52.0%
44.4%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 3 | 10:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 07:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |