Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Sturm 53.6% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 67.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 57.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Nazar
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nazar
Sturm
Last 9: Nazar 5-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
54.6% (271)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
54.4% (90)
-24.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Nazar
Sturm
Home
45.0% (329)
53.0% (168)
Away
48.5% (431)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Nazar
Sturm
P1
47.8%
58.2%
P2
43.4%
53.2%
P3
48.4%
52.3%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 02:17 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:03 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |