Connor McDavid vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 95.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 50.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 83.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 84.2%
84.2%
15.8%
McDavid
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
Last 5: McDavid 5-0 Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Gaudreau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
44.9% (414)
+2.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
31.8% (22)
+17.5%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
38.0% (129)
+10.9%
On power play, McDavid has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gaudreau
Home
50.0% (412)
42.6% (277)
Away
45.7% (394)
43.1% (288)
By Period
McDavid
Gaudreau
P1
48.0%
44.1%
P2
48.5%
44.7%
P3
47.1%
39.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |