Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (59.7% vs 59.1%). Look for Drury on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Drury shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Drury 58.1% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 63.5%
Defensive zone
Drury 65.8%
Neutral zone
Drury 57.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Matthews
Drury
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Drury
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Drury
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drury
1
2
Matthews
Drury
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Drury
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Drury
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
61.3% (690)
-1.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
40.0% (10)
+24.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
50.9% (165)
+5.4%
On power play, Matthews has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Drury shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Drury is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Matthews
Drury
Home
60.0% (520)
59.0% (417)
Away
59.3% (452)
59.2% (448)
By Period
Matthews
Drury
P1
60.2%
58.9%
P2
58.2%
58.3%
P3
60.4%
59.9%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Drury
72.0%▲
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:41 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jack Drury |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | Jack Drury |