Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs Koivu 52.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 69.4%
Defensive zone
Koivu 55.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 58.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Spezza
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Spezza
Koivu
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
1
Spezza
Koivu
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Koivu
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Koivu
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
52.5% (802)
+1.3%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
52.0% (198)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
49.5% (105)
-0.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Spezza shoots right. Koivu is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Spezza
Koivu
Home
56.4% (853)
54.6% (584)
Away
50.5% (847)
49.7% (539)
By Period
Spezza
Koivu
P1
53.4%
50.7%
P2
54.2%
51.1%
P3
53.4%
54.4%
OT
44.4%
57.6%
Final 5 min
52.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2011 | OT | 03:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 3 | 07:28 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 2 | 08:17 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 1 | 04:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 11, 2011 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |