Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.1% vs Smith 48.2% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 89.2%
Defensive zone
Spezza 60.9%
Neutral zone
Spezza 76.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Spezza
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Spezza
Smith
Last 7: Spezza 5-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Smith
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Spezza
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
0
Spezza
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (654)
49.7% (485)
+6.7%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
46.8% (47)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
38.6% (88)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Spezza shoots right. Smith is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Spezza
Smith
Home
61.4% (352)
48.7% (310)
Away
50.9% (395)
47.1% (310)
By Period
Spezza
Smith
P1
60.6%
45.8%
P2
54.8%
47.4%
P3
52.5%
50.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.8%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 02:24 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 01:57 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 1 | 16:13 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Zack Smith |