Auston Matthews vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (59.7% vs 59.8%). Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Pageau 58.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 63.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 64.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 55.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Matthews
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Pageau
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Pageau
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Matthews
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Matthews
Pageau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
59.3% (715)
+0.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
68.3% (41)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
59.7% (221)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pageau
Home
60.0% (520)
58.1% (418)
Away
59.3% (452)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Matthews
Pageau
P1
60.2%
55.3%
P2
58.2%
61.5%
P3
60.4%
61.6%
OT
70.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
63.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:42 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |