Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nico Sturm
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs Sturm 53.6% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 69.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 72.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 68.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 70.2%
29.8%
70.2%
Pageau
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Pageau
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Pageau
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Pageau
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
59.3% (715)
54.6% (271)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
54.4% (90)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Pageau shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Pageau
Sturm
Home
58.1% (418)
53.0% (168)
Away
61.0% (559)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Pageau
Sturm
P1
55.3%
58.2%
P2
61.5%
53.2%
P3
61.6%
52.3%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
63.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 15:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |