Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 85.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 70.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Pageau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Pageau
O'Reilly
Last 9: Pageau 6-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Pageau
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
0
Pageau
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.3% (715)
55.7% (856)
+3.6%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
57.5% (233)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
50.0% (144)
+9.7%
On power play, Pageau has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Pageau shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Pageau
O'Reilly
Home
58.1% (418)
55.5% (616)
Away
61.0% (559)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Pageau
O'Reilly
P1
55.3%
58.1%
P2
61.5%
54.9%
P3
61.6%
53.9%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |