Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +17.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Carter 60.1% (-17.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 94.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 81.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 86.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 83.6%
83.6%
16.4%
Nelson
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Nelson
Carter
Last 8: Nelson 1-7 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
6
Nelson
Carter
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Nelson
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
65.6% (262)
-19.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
68.3% (63)
-33.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
50.5% (99)
-20.1%
On power play, Carter has a +33.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Carter is 63.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carter
Home
48.7% (419)
64.3% (207)
Away
41.3% (368)
60.8% (217)
By Period
Nelson
Carter
P1
44.6%
65.3%
P2
47.3%
60.1%
P3
43.0%
63.8%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
65.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:24 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:18 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 12:48 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |