Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 51.1% vs Barzal 42.9% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 77.9%
Defensive zone
Carter 91.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 89.7%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 87.3%
87.3%
12.7%
Carter
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Carter
Barzal
Last 5: Carter 4-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
3
1
Carter
Barzal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (552)
40.7% (514)
+11.5%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
58.3% (24)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (100)
50.0% (10)
-9.0%
On even strength, Carter has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Carter is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Carter shoots right. Barzal is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (156).
Home / Away
Carter
Barzal
Home
51.2% (324)
43.0% (279)
Away
51.2% (422)
40.1% (269)
By Period
Carter
Barzal
P1
49.8%
41.2%
P2
52.8%
46.4%
P3
51.2%
37.1%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.2%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 15:20 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |