Scouting Report
Jeremy Welsh holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Chaput on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Welsh wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Chaput shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Welsh 50.5% vs Chaput 46.5% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Welsh 52.1%
Defensive zone
Chaput 50.5%
Neutral zone
Chaput 54.0%
Result
Michael Chaput favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Welsh
Chaput
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Welsh
Chaput
Last 5: Welsh 2-3 Chaput
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Welsh
Chaput
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chaput
1
2
Welsh
Chaput
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Welsh
Chaput
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (89)
43.8% (96)
+7.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
0.0% (2)
+0.0%
On even strength, Welsh has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chaput shoots left. Welsh is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (62).
Welsh shoots left. Chaput is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Welsh
Chaput
Home
54.8% (42)
36.2% (47)
Away
47.9% (48)
49.0% (51)
By Period
Welsh
Chaput
P1
45.0%
33.3%
P2
51.5%
42.9%
P3
54.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
34.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Welsh
48.0%▼
52.4%
51.1%
Chaput
56.0%▲
46.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2013 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | Michael Chaput |
| Nov 22, 2013 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Jeremy Welsh |
| Nov 22, 2013 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Jeremy Welsh |
| Nov 22, 2013 | 1 | 09:17 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |
| Nov 22, 2013 | 1 | 02:47 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |