Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rose on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rose wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rose 44.9% vs Pavelski 53.3% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 87.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 75.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 79.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.3%
16.7%
83.3%
Rose
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Rose
Pavelski
Last 8: Rose 5-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Rose
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rose
3
1
Rose
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rose
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (234)
54.4% (474)
-12.1%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
51.9% (104)
-35.2%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (34)
52.7% (74)
+0.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +35.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Rose is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Rose shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Home / Away
Rose
Pavelski
Home
40.7% (140)
54.3% (313)
Away
45.5% (134)
53.4% (339)
By Period
Rose
Pavelski
P1
46.9%
51.0%
P2
41.3%
51.9%
P3
40.5%
58.1%
Final 5 min
35.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rose
48.0%▲
44.5%
43.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 10:13 | Offensive | Jacob de la Rose |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 08:10 | Neutral | Jacob de la Rose |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 1 | 10:49 | Neutral | Jacob de la Rose |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 09:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Jacob de la Rose |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 2 | 17:23 | Neutral | Jacob de la Rose |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |